Time to build a new practice of foresight for national economies? Ireland, and uncertain futures in forecasts and scenarios

Purpose The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to systemic uncertainty human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, show biases towards optimistic growth paths. purpose this study consider approaches improve foresight. Design/methodology/approach This describes practice foresight as evolving two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term long-term scenario analysis development, latter found studies climate change sustainability. unique case Ireland considered, a country that has experienced both steep deep troughs, confounded forecasting. challenges facing forecasts discussed, brief review drivers growth, scenarios global literature. Findings Economic forecasting seeks manage by improving accuracy quantitative point related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, economy defies prediction, even near-term. In contrast, eschews favour set plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using response irreducible complex sophisticated employed integrate qualitative insights. Research limitations/implications To support policymaking, it necessary advancement foresight, handling risk. Practical While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit improved accuracy, there now implementing advanced approaches, analysis, more robust decision-making. Social Building resilience adaptability, part sustainable future, requires strategic planning, policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported Originality/value best authors’ knowledge, article original considering application value baseline methods, fundamental contemporary economics, bringing field economics into heart